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Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS)

Careful management of catastrophe risk is a business imperative at Lloyd’s

Past experience shows that the market needs to be able to withstand multiple catastrophe events in any given year.

Lloyd’s maintains a set of mandatory Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) to stress test both individual syndicates and the market as a whole. The event scenarios are regularly reviewed to ensure they represent material catastrophe risks.

RDS Scenario Specification 2024

There are three sets of Realistic Disaster Scenarios

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Compulsory event scenarios

First are the compulsory scenarios, for which all syndicates report estimated losses to Lloyd’s.

These represent events to which most of the market would potentially be exposed, and for which Lloyd's monitors the total of all syndicate losses.

  • Two consecutive Atlantic seaboard windstorms
  • Florida windstorm
  • Gulf of Mexico windstorm
  • European windstorm
  • Japanese windstorm
  • California earthquake
  • New Madrid earthquake
  • Japanese earthquake
  • UK flood
  • Terrorism
  • Cyber risks
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Syndicate-defined scenarios

Next, there are two events which syndicates must define for themselves as representing material potential losses not captured in other scenarios.

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Syndicate specific scenarios

Finally, there is a set of more specialist scenarios, which need only be reported if estimated losses exceed a threshold.

  • Marine event
  • Loss of major complex
  • Aviation collision
  • Satellite risks
  • Liability risks
  • Political risks