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Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS)

Careful management of catastrophe risk is a business imperative at Lloyd’s. Past experience shows that the market needs to be able to withstand multiple catastrophe events in any given year.

RDS Scenario specification 2021

Lloyd’s maintains a set of mandatory Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) to stress test both individual syndicates and the market as a whole. The event scenarios are regularly reviewed to ensure they represent material catastrophe risks.

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There are three sets of Realistic Disaster Scenarios. First are the compulsory scenarios, for which all syndicates report estimated losses to Lloyd’s; these represent events to which most of the market would potentially be exposed, and for which Lloyd's monitors the total of all syndicate losses. There is a set of more specialist scenarios, which need only be reported if estimated losses exceed a threshold. Finally, there are two events which syndicates must define for themselves as representing material potential losses not captured in other scenarios.

  • Two consecutive Atlantic seaboard windstorms
  • Florida windstorm
  • Gulf of Mexico windstorm
  • European windstorm
  • Japanese windstorm
  • California earthquake
  • New Madrid earthquake
  • Japanese earthquake
  • UK flood
  • Terrorism
  • Marine event
  • Loss of major complex
  • Aviation collision
  • Satellite risks
  • Liability risks
  • Political risks
  • Cyber
  • Two syndicate-defined Realistic Disaster Scenarios