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The impact on industry

The impact of the crisis on macroeconomic themes will most certainly be felt across all industries to varying degrees. Inflationary pressures associated with supply chain issues such as costs of materials, labour and logistics are mounting, with companies considering a number of solutions to maintain revenue and profitability. For instance, oil and gas producers and food manufacturers will be the most impacted by inflation, largely due to Russia and Ukraine having dominant positions as major exporters of key raw materials across these industries.

We explore seven industries that we forecast to be impacted by the conflict. The below table summarises the implications of each of the market forces analysed to businesses over the short to long term. These are assessed in greater detail in the PDF version of the report for the different industry groups expected to be most impacted by the crisis. You can download insights for each, below the table.

The industry groups expected to be most impacted by the crisis

Banks and financial institutions

Banks are facing two key ongoing challenges in light of the conflict – balancing both ESG and profitability goals and reconsidering where business operations ought to continue. However, some opportunities have emerged such as growing interest in a multi-purpose cryptocurrency market.

Construction and manufacturing

Manufacturers with a production site in affected regions may face significant challenges and potential losses from supply chain issues and from a business continuity perspective.  Contractors and manufacturers will need to consider the extent to which their insurance policies provide the protection they need. In the longer term, taking risk in-house through captives or self-insurance may become increasingly prominent.


Refineries are currently enjoying a significant increase in profits due to price hikes exacerbated by supply constriction pressures on top of demand surge coming off the pandemic – however, they remain conscious of the need to detach from Russian imports and restructure their businesses in order to incorporate renewable solutions. As such, as well as their partners across the value chain, they are mapping out their supply chains in detail and considering how to permanently disconnect from Russian business.

Food and beverages

With Ukraine and Russia as significant exporters of raw food ingredients such as wheat, the crisis has exposed fragilities in supply chains and identified the need for other economies to diversify.

Public sector and healthcare

Governments will need to consider several fiscal stimuli decisions such as encouraging investment in renewables, and budget spending focused on defence. In an escalated scenario, governments will face a further burden on healthcare costs to treat citizens involved in war efforts.


With Chinese and Indian technology companies likely to benefit from the conflict through unmet demands from the West, many companies will look to offer new food and renewables technologies amid growing interest in these critical markets.

Transport and logistics

Economies are identifying new trading routes in light of the conflict – however, we may see long-term reduced trading activity globally as countries target self-sufficiency, especially across energy and food markets