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Lloyd’s and Aon report reveals the highly interrelated risks of Ukraine conflict reshaping business models and global economy

27 Jul 2022

Lloyd’s, the world’s leading marketplace for commercial and speciality risk solutions, in collaboration with global professional services firm Aon, has today published, ‘Ukraine: A conflict that changed the world’. The new report examines the wide-ranging and long term impacts that the conflict in Ukraine could have on businesses, and the steps they can take to mitigate these risks.

The key findings from the report include:

  • In all sectors, the ability of businesses to diversify and ‘hedge’ their portfolios and supply chains to reduce dependence on single suppliers will be key to minimising risk exposure;
  • The energy sector will likely be most impacted by the range of risks emerging from the conflict; however energy security and reputational concerns will be a key factor for all sectors in building risk mitigation strategies to respond to the conflict;
  • As pertinent as the immediate inflationary impacts, there will be second order effects from reduced food and energy supplies (with Russia alone providing a fifth of the world’s wheat and 40% of Europe’s gas) and higher business costs associated with reshoring supply chains.
  • The conflict’s impacts are highly interrelated. For example, building on Lloyd’s Futureset’s recent ‘Shifting Powers’ report, it’s clear escalating geopolitical tensions have triggered a spike in cyber attacks that could have knock on impacts on inflation and market volatility.

The report applies five plausible scenarios to the industries and geographies most affected by the conflict. Each scenario explores the possible short, medium, and long-term effects of the war across a series of themes: supply chains, energy, food security, ESG, the climate transition, inflation and cyber. The report emphasises the need for insurance, as a key risk transfer mechanism, to help businesses mitigate these interrelated risks and build organisational resilience.

"The conflict in Ukraine has caused devastating human costs and a whole range of interconnected risks across areas like energy, cyber and supply chains. Just take the recent challenges of exporting grain, where geopolitics has in turn affected food security, market volatility and price inflation. A proactive and forward-thinking approach will therefore be key to building resilience against the fallout – and Lloyd’s will deploy its expertise, resources, and risk solutions to support that goal.”
John Neal - Chief Executive Officer, Lloyd’s
“The Ukraine conflict touches us all, both as individuals and businesses. Over time, our world has become increasingly interconnected, and geopolitical events further highlight that a specific risk does not exist in isolation. Our ability to manage deeply related and increasingly volatile risks requires careful thought, detailed planning and effective execution. I hope the front-line perspectives contained in this report help businesses understand the universality of the challenges, the ways they may evolve and how they may best navigate them as they make better-informed decisions.”
Dominic Christian - Global Chairman of Reinsurance Solutions, Aon

Notes to Editors

  1. Read the full report: ‘Ukraine: A conflict that changed the world’ is focused on the impacts of the Ukraine crisis on businesses around the world.
  2. This research has been delivered through a collaboration between Lloyd's and Aon. The research explores the critical themes and forces shaping the risk environment as a result of the crisis, based on in-depth interviews with 75 sector experts and practitioners across Aon and Lloyd’s. These interviews have provided real-life, practical insights on the challenges that companies across a range of industries are facing as a result of the Ukraine conflict and how they are adjusting their risk management approaches in response. In addition to these interviews, the report combines proprietary data with a range of thought leadership and third-party analysis to develop insights aimed at helping people, communities and organisations in all sectors to develop greater agility and resilience in this ever more uncertain world.
  3. Futureset is Lloyd’s global platform and community dedicated to driving greater societal and economic resilience to the world’s most challenging risks. By bringing together diverse perspectives, and through cutting-edge risk insight, intelligence, and cross-industry dialogue on the most complex and fast-changing risks faced by communities, businesses and countries, Lloyd’s Futureset aims to build greater societal understanding and collaboration to find solutions and support greater preparedness, protection and resilience.
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Lloyd’s is the world’s leading marketplace for commercial, corporate and specialty risk solutions. Through the collective intelligence and expertise of the market’s underwriters and brokers, we’re sharing risk to create a braver world.

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