Human pandemic:
Additional insight

Pandemics can be unpredictable and the consequences and changes to daily life that follow an outbreak can be long-lasting. For many, the travel restrictions, social distancing, widespread testing, and underlying sense of fear have been ingrained in our collective memory, with some changes – like remote working – now integrated into our daily lives.

Countries in the Asia Pacific region with recent experience of infectious disease outbreak from SARS (2002-2004) had a much more effective COVID-19 response. To the West, some of their measures seemed draconian, including isolating whole towns and implementing long quarantine periods and daily testing. Some of the region’s habits were changed permanently due to SARS, including the general acceptance of mask-wearing in public areas.

As infectious diseases continue to evolve, it is crucial we understand how future outbreaks may unfold and reshape our world.

A man-made problem

While most viruses are naturally occurring, human intervention is making the emergence of man-made or man-assisted disease transmission a growing possibility. One of the most concerning outcomes is the proximity of people to high concentrations of animals and human migration into unknown habitats. Even in some of the most hygienic farming environments, there is still the possibility of zoonotic transmission (the transfer to humans of an animal-borne disease) for which there is little or no adequate treatment or vaccine.

In response to this threat, extensive research is being carried out into these diseases. While laboratory environments, particularly those dealing with environmental hazards, are extremely secure, a worst-case scenario would be the escape of a bioengineered version of disease that is super-resistant to medical intervention.

Climate change

Climate change is emerging as a significant driver of future pandemics. As global temperatures rise, previous dormant microbes trapped in melting glaciers and permafrost are being released. These ancient pathogens, which humans have not encountered for millennia, pose a new threat due to the lack of immunity in modern populations. An anthrax outbreak in 2016 caused by thawing permafrost in Siberia killed 2,649 reindeer and infected 36 people, including a 12-year boy who tragically died^[24]. 

More concerningly, climate change has also enabled many heat-sensitive microbes to adapt to higher temperatures, increasing their ability to survive within the human body. While much of the ocean’s microbial life remains unexplored, the possibility of these microbes entering human populations should not be dismissed. That said, the most likely source of future pandemics will be from microbes that can infect terrestrial mammals and then jump to humans – a scenario the world is more familiar with and can better prepare for.

^{[24] https://www.science.org/content/article/permafrost-can-imprison-dangerous-microbes-centuries-will-arctic-thaw-release-them#:~:text=A%20more%20alarming%20pathogen%20may%20have%20already%20emerged%20naturally%20from}

Systems under strain

Pandemics place immense pressures on global health systems. Countries with under-resourced healthcare systems will likely experience higher mortality rates and longer economic disruptions, as their systems struggle to cope with the surges in patient numbers, ventilator shortages, and limited access to essential care. We saw this disparity unfold during COVID-19, where ‘vaccine inequality’ left less than 1% of low- and middle-income country populations vaccinated.^[25]

However not all diseases are likely to cause a pandemic, and not all pandemics will necessarily cause economic and social shutdown. The rigidity of lockdown measures has been directly in proportion to the ability of nations’ healthcare systems to avoid being overwhelmed. The Access to Healthcare Index of the INFORM risk index determines how capable each country’s provision is, based on the availability of healthcare workers, the overall immunity to measles through vaccination, spend per capita on healthcare and maternal mortality rate. The Index has shown significant changes in healthcare quality in the past two decades, which is likely to impact resilience to an infectious disease outbreak in the future. COVID-19 also acted as a catalyst for healthcare reform, driving rapid adoption of digital health solutions such as telemedicine^[26], accelerated vaccine development, and the adoption of better disease surveillance and early warning systems.

[25] https://www.who.int/news/item/22-07-2021-vaccine-inequity-undermining-global-economic-recovery#:~:text=New%20Global%20Dashboard%20on%20COVID-19%20Vaccine%20Equity%20finds%20low-income%20countries[2] https://www.npr.org/2023/01/21/1150605295/three-years-on-how-covid-19-has-changed-health-care#:~:text=Michel%20Martin%20talks%20with%20Advocate%20Health%20CEO%20Eugene%20A.%20Woods

[26] https://www.npr.org/2023/01/21/1150605295/three-years-on-how-covid-19-has-changed-health-care#:~:text=Michel%20Martin%20talks%20with%20Advocate%20Health%20CEO%20Eugene%20A.%20Woods