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Building global resilience against systemic risk

Revealing the economic losses caused by globally catastrophic events

Our world is shaped by the risks around us.

And in the past five years - against a backdrop of 25 years of globalisation - those risks have created a heightened environment of uncertainty and volatility.

For those who manage risk, whether it’s businesses, governments or insurers, the need to anticipate the risks of tomorrow has never been greater than today.

Quantifying a new level of loss

To help build greater understanding and preparedness, and to encourage proactive approaches to risk mitigation and management, Lloyd’s Futureset has partnered with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies (CCRS) to develop a series of scenario analyses, which forecast the impact, cost, and recovery of some the most globally significant threats to the world, with the view of them occurring in the next five years.  

If we are to increase our collective resilience to system wide threats and global perils, we must work with flexibility, imagination, and collaboration to empower innovation and encourage economic progress. Through this research, we hope to help our customers and stakeholders do just that, fostering a more resilient and risk aware society.

Read the scenarios and explore the data

Our scenarios explore a series of potentially systemic threats, with their impact and losses modelled across 107 countries and 277 cities at three levels of severity – major, extreme, and severe. They also showcase the role that businesses, governments and insurers play in building a more resilient society.

Understanding the research

Data dashboard

Explore economic losses for each scenario, as they are released in the Lloyd's Insights Hub (account required).

Research methodology & glossary

Learn more about how the modelling has been conducted and view the glossary of key terms used across the research.

Download library

A library of all downloads available for each scenario. The library will be updated as scenarios are made public.