Shining a light on
solar storms

A solar storm is a sudden and intense burst of radiation and energetic particles blasted from the Sun. If large enough and directed towards Earth, the resulting ‘space weather’ has the potential to severely damage critical infrastructure and create significant disruption across multiple industries and our everyday activities.

Solar storms are a powerful phenomenon that occur when the Sun’s complex and twisted magnetic field releases huge amounts of energy. This can result in intense bursts of light called ‘solar flares’, superheated plasma known as a ‘coronal mass ejections’ (CMEs)^[1], or highly charged particles being blasted into space. When these eruptions interact with the Earth’s natural magnetic field, they can create geomagnetic storms that have the potential to disrupt the digital systems we heavily rely on in our modern way of life. 

These effects can look magnificent when they create dazzling aurora displays in our skies, but historical precedent suggests the impacts of this natural catastrophe could materially affect the global economy. The 1859 Carrington Event is the largest recorded solar storm. Seventeen hours after Astronomer Richard Carrington saw a solar flare through his telescope, an enormous and unprecedented geomagnetic storm was creating worldwide disruption on Earth, including damaging telegraph wires and igniting fires at telegraph stations in North America and Europe.^[2]

Technology and communications infrastructure is no longer in its infancy. If this event happened today, it could cause significant disruption across energy grids, satellites, navigation systems, and communication, transportation and financial networks – vital systems relied upon daily by businesses, governments and society globally.

As we continue to race forwards into a digital future, it’s critical we are vigilant in understanding the risks posed by space weather. The cost of preparedness is far smaller than the cost of inaction, and building resilience is essential for protecting the global economy from the forces of the Sun.

^{[1] https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/5-geomagnetic-storms-reshaped-society   
[2] https://www.space.com/the-carrington-event}  

At Lloyd’s we have a rich history of insuring the space industry, dating back to the Earlybird satellite in 1965. However space weather can damage assets on Earth as well as in space, and cause knock-on disruption across all industries that rely on communications, navigation or power systems.

Space weather is therefore an evolving area of coverage with a wide spectrum of financial support and protection. Some examples include:

The Sun’s complex magnetic field follows an 11-year solar cycle and alternating periods of high and low activity. Our Sun is currently in its periodic high cycle – Solar Cycle 25 - which is set to peak in July 2025^[3], increasing the likelihood of extreme space weather. 

This hypothetical scenario explores how a large, rare solar storm that collides with Earth’s magnetic field could unfold into a costly event.

 ^{[3] https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/solar-cycle-25-is-here-nasa-noaa-scientists-explain-what-that-means/}

Sighting

Solar scientists at an observatory see increased sunspot activity, highlighting a potential threat to Earth. They alert governments and critical infrastructure operators, and some implement pre-planned resilience arrangements.

Timeframe: Hours

Eruption

High solar activity continues, resulting in a release of energy that sees very large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) thrown out towards Earth.

Timeframe: Hours

Bombardment

For an hour Earth is hit with a Carrington-level geomagnetic storm, the most intense ever recorded. This is joined by numerous substorms forming every few hours on the daylight side of the planet.

Timeframe: One Hour

Interference

The build-up of charged particles trapped within the Earth’s magnetic field causes signal scintillation (rapid changes in amplitude and signal phasing) which inhibits communication signals from satellites - including those used for Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) - from reaching users on the ground^[4]. 

^{[4] https://raeng.org.uk/media/lz2fs5ql/space_weather_full_report_final.pdf}  

Timeframe: Hours

Stress

On Earth, the geomagnetic storm induces high electric currents along electricity cables, while in space the solar arrays that satellites rely on for power begin to degrade. Thanks to the mitigation actions taken, both satellites and energy grids weather the initial assault, however satellites with design or manufacturing defects may be susceptible to space weather effects.

Timeframe: Hours

Burn-out

Eventually, wiring and sensitive extra high voltage (EHV) components across the energy grid are damaged beyond repair, leaving the grid unable to take the heightened induced currents. Nodes collapse and remaining electrical assets fold under very large loads resulting in cascading failure. This leads to power outages across whole regions and major industrial centres. In space, numerous satellites in geostationary orbit lose power or re-enter low Earth orbit (LEO), increasing their risk of collision.

Timeframe: Weeks

Consequences

With key satellite constellations failing and GNSS interrupted, global aviation and shipping grind to a halt. Meanwhile power surges across the energy grid cause cabling at industrial sites to overheat, igniting fires and force high demand on to emergency services. Supply chains are unable to respond to the volume of repairs required, resulting in a sustained reduction in capacity (or even outages) across critical communication, navigation and power services.

Timeframe: Weeks - months

The economic impacts from this scenario primarily arise from damage to critical infrastructure and the resulting business interruption across industries that rely on it.

Damage to sensitive EHV transformers - crucial for efficiently transporting electricity over long distances - is the most serious and time-consuming effect of this scenario. If transformers overheat due to exposure to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), this can lead to failures on the electrical grid and potentially widespread and prolonged blackouts across regions. Hospitals, homes and businesses could go dark and cold without power, and substantial power outages in major markets could have a significant economic impact on international business through lost productivity, cessation of business operations, loss of or stranded goods, transport delays and disruptions. 

Satellites and other spacecraft are likely to be physically damaged or experience anomalies, with a knock-on impact on digital and communication networks. It is possible that this could trigger an internet blackout in some regions, which could also lead to increased vulnerability to cyber-attacks if threat actors respond quickly and attack during system reboots. This scenario does not consider the long-term degradation costs to satellites.

In the most severe level of the scenario, GNSS are temporarily knocked out. Impacts to location accuracy and operational precision could mean flights are grounded, ships are stalled, construction projects delayed, financial transactions halted, and trade slowed. Existing political tensions could be exacerbated as countries fight for key resources needed to recuperate from the attack, stalling economic recovery. Social disorder, such as looting, could also arise as disruption creates a desperation for food, cash and other essentials.

The scenario also presents health risks. Passengers and crew on flights could be exposed to radiation levels 20 times the annual limit, translating to an increased lifetime cancer risk of 1 in 1,000 for each person exposed^[10]. 

 ^{[10] https://raeng.org.uk/media/lz2fs5ql/space_weather_full_report_final.pdf}