Extreme space
weather: Additional
insight
Further background on space weather and global resilience
Stability in the face of space weather
Extreme space weather need not put Earth on constant high alert. In a typical 11-year cycle (on average) there are peaks and troughs where more or less severe activity can be expected, but there are also moments of random, extreme space weather and so vigilance is always required. The solar cycle generates three different types of solar activity: coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar proton events (SPEs) and solar flares (see Glossary). These vary in severity but activity peaks at the end of the cycle and events are measured along the scale G1 – G5, which rises exponentially in a similar way to earthquakes measured on the Richter scale.
© Max Alexander/Lloyd’s “Life in the Sun’s Atmosphere”, please note a credit is required to use this image
The power of the storm
A study of Japanese cedar trees by Fusa Miyake, a cosmic ray physicist at Nagoya University in Japan, revealed that huge spikes in a type of carbon known as carbon-14 in tree rings can be an indicator of high energy particles generated by “superflares”, i.e. enormously powerful solar storms that are 10 times bigger than anything observed in recent history. Seven of these events are believed to have occurred over the past 15,000 years occurring at infrequent, but regular intervals of possibly every 400-2,400 years.[29]
The most powerful storm in recent history was the ‘Carrington Event’ in 1859. The event caused fire damage to the telegraph system, although the communications network kept working during the storm due to the amount of atmospheric energy available. Since Carrington, the Earth has experienced ‘near misses’, such as the 2012 ‘Carrington-class’ storm which could have caused major devastation.
Our current solar storm cycle – Solar Cycle 25 - is expected to peak in July 2025. Daniel Müller, project scientist for the Solar Orbiter mission at the European Space Agency ESA has observed that the relative sunspot number (a measurement of visible activity on the Sun’s surface) in this cycle is greater than Solar Cycle 24 and "significantly more active than what people predicted"[30].
[29] The superstorms from space that could end modern life - BBC Future
[30] Beyond the aurorae: How solar flares spill out across the Solar System - BBC Future
Dazzling auroas
The charged particles of a powerful solar storm can collide with atoms and molecules in Earth’s atmosphere, creating stunning displays of aurora borealis and aurora australis – the Northern and Southern Lights. Usually only visible in higher latitudes, a particularly strong storm can make auroras visible in much more unusual locations.
In May 2024, night sky watchers were treated to colourful skies - visible to the naked-eye - in surprising locations around the world including San Francisco in the US; Auckland, New Zealand; and even on the south Pacific island of New Caledonia[31]. The 2003 "Halloween Solar Storms" produced auroras visible in Texas, Florida, Spain and Italy, and during the 1859 Carrington Event the Northern Lights were reportedly visible as far South as Cuba and Hawaii[32].
[31] Epic Northern Lights Aurora This Month Tied To A Solar ‘Great Storm’
[32] How Far South Have the Northern Lights Been Seen? - AstronimUs
Modern network fragiliy
Power outages have been one of the most notable effects of storms in recent years. In 1989 and again in 2003, storms caused power to fail in Quebec and Scandinavia respectively. In Quebec, the grid went down in 90 seconds and lasted nine hours. In Scandinavia the power outage was joined by a communications blackout.
The next major event is still on the horizon, but in 2012 a storm equivalent to the 1859 Carrington Event narrowly missed Earth, with one academic noting that if it had hit “we would still be picking up the pieces”.
During a G1 geomagnetic storm in February 2022, 40 of 49 Starlink satellites experienced orbital decay the day after they were launched. Increased heat due to the storm caused the atmosphere to expand, which created increased drag force in low Earth orbit (LEO). The drag caused the satellites to prematurely re-enter Earth’s atmosphere where they were destroyed by atmospheric friction. When satellites re-enter Earth’s atmosphere, there is an increased risk of collision with other objects in LEO as satellites perform corrective manoeuvres and positioning data is out of date. It’s clear that even the most technologically advanced companies can still be at the mercy of space weather and it’s a timely reminder that satellite operators should keep a close eye on space weather monitoring services before attempting any costly manoeuvres.
The way we live today means that, as a society, we are more at risk from solar storms than ever before, and the breadth of sectors potentially exposed to space weather risk is growing. Our world is so interconnected by technology that even a brief outage could throw daily life into disarray, with an extreme long-tail event rising significant and lasting damage to infrastructure and the economy.
Glossary
| Terms | Description |
| Solar storm | A solar storm is a sudden explosion of particles, energy, magnetic fields, and material blasted into the solar system by the Sun. This can include solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events (SPEs). |
| Space weather | When directed towards Earth, solar storms interact with the Earth’s magnetic field and upper atmosphere, creating a range effects that we know as space weather. |
| Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) | CMEs are massive explosions of billions of tonnes of charged particles thrown out into space from the Sun.[33] [33] (Webb and Howard 2012) |
| Solar proton events (SPEs) | Solar proton events (SPEs) – SPEs are a formed of high-speed charged particles, mainly of protons but also heavy ions, thrown out into space from the Sun.[34] They may be related to CMEs and solar flares. [34] (Shea and Smart 2012) |
| Solar flares | Solar flares – Solar flares are a rapid release of light (electromagnetic radiation) from the Sun. The emitted radiation covers most of the electromagnetic spectrum, from radio waves to x-rays.[35] [35] (Fletcher et al. 2011) |
| Sunspots | Dark, planet-size regions of strong magnetic fields on the surface of the Sun. They can spawn eruptive disturbances such as solar flares and CMEs. The frequency and intensity of sunspots visible on the surface indicate the level of solar activity during the 11-year solar cycle that is driven by the sun's magnetic field.[36] [36] Sunspots: What are they, and why do they occur? | Space |
| Relative sunspot number | An index of the activity of the entire visible disk of the Sun. It is determined each day without reference to preceding days.[37] |
| Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) | Electrical currents caused by solar storms which can surge along oil and gas pipelines and high-tension electricity transmission lines.[38] |
Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) | A group of satellites providing location and navigation information. |
Explore the impact of a systemic solar storm
The role of insurance
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