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Designing liability scenarios

This report presents an approach developed by Arium which combines insights provided by scenarios and supply chains to quantify losses that could arise from liability events.

30 Nov 2015

Designing liability scenarios

This report touches upon the potential to develop a stochastic modelling capability for liability exposures, and proposes mechanisms by which this could be achieved.

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Liability exposure management has historically been a challenge for insurers. Liabilities often stem from a complex interaction of legal and socio-economic factors which can make this kind of problem hard to represent and the exposures hard to capture in a form that lends itself to systematic study. Lloyd’s is investigating different methods that aim to reduce uncertainty in this area, and this report presents an approach developed by Arium which seeks to harness the power of scenario design and supply chains.

Arium’s framework combines a scenario of a product or service causing harm with publicly available trade data to build a map of the spread of potential liability through industries. This map is filtered using information about the harm caused and policy information, and used to calculate an aggregate loss for the scenario. The scenario may then be split into sub-scenarios, and parameterised to calculate a per policy loss. The report also sets out case studies of both a financial and a non-financial liability scenario developed using this framework.

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