Charles Taylor Managing Agency Limited
Managing Agent Name: Charles Taylor Managing Agency Limited
Subject: Forecast of 2015 open year result
Syndicate(s) Affected: 1884
Forecast of 2015 open year result
Charles Taylor Managing Agency Limited (CTMA) currently forecasts (based upon the unaudited figures reported in the Syndicate’s quarterly monitoring return (QMR) at 30 September 2016) that the result for the 2015 year of account (YOA) of the Syndicate, after deduction of illustrative standard personal expenses (comprising Lloyd’s charges, managing agent’s fee, capacity fee and estimated profit commission) but before deduction of members’ agents fees, has deteriorated since the previous forecast was reported in the Syndicate’s QMR at 30 June 2016:
Forecast as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity
30 June 2016
30 September 2016
|Best case expectation||(15.0%)||(29.9%)|
|Worst case expectation||(35.0%)||(49.9%)|
This change assumes that the current attritional loss development on the Hull account, which is currently running at greater than 100% loss ratio, will continue to ultimate. The Hull account makes up just over 50% of the premium for the YOA. Ultimate gross net premium projection has also been reduced from £33.5m (at 30 June 2016) to £31.9m (at 30 September 2016). There is still uncertainty regarding the ultimate development of the YOA. Earned premium at 30 September 2016 is almost 80% of the ultimate projection.
Forecast of 2016 open year result
The first forecast of the result for the 2016 YOA is not due until after the first quarter of 2017. CTMA’s current internal forecast for the 2016 YOA result is broadly unchanged since 30 June 2016. The forecast as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity is currently projected to be (4.7%) for the Syndicate (after deduction of illustrative standard personal expenses (comprising Lloyd’s charges, managing agent’s fee, capacity fee and estimated profit commission), but before deduction of members’ agents fees). The primary driver is the reduction in ultimate gross net premium projection to £73.7m (against the business plan forecast of £85.2m) due to challenging market conditions. The Hull account makes up about 30% of the YOA which is significantly less than the proportion in the 2015 YOA. While there is significant uncertainty regarding the ultimate development of the YOA after nine months, claims incurred activity is lower than at the same development period for the 2015 YOA.
Date issued: 11 November 2016
Agency contact name: Julia Davis, Compliance Officer
Agency contact no: + 44 (0)203 320 2247
For auction office use only: D2016017
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