Managing Agent Name: Canopius Managing Agents Limited
Subject: Syndicate Business Forecast
Syndicate Affected: 4444
On 20 October 2017, Lloyd’s agreed the Syndicate Business Plan for the 2018 year of account of Syndicate 4444, along with the corresponding capital requirements.
The numbers in the Syndicate Business Plan were prepared prior to the significant catastrophe activity of 2017 and include an assumed whole account rate decrease of 1.0%.
As a result of these catastrophic events, which some modelling companies are estimating to be in the region of $90bn-$137bn of insured losses, there is now a market-wide expectation that positive rate change will be seen during 2018.
It is too early to quantify the size of these rate changes but, in order to ensure Syndicate 4444 can capitalise upon anticipated rating improvements, we included a 7.5% pre-emption of stamp capacity within our Syndicate Business Plan.
Once the 1 January renewals have been evaluated, we may resubmit our Syndicate Business Plan to better reflect actual market conditions.
Separately, we will be maintaining our absolute maximum gross line size of $50m for our Crisis Management book of business as opposed to the $75m shown in the Syndicate Business Plan. This will have a negligible impact on the financial result.
Date issued: 26th October 2017
Agency contact name: Adam Timms
Agency contact no: + 44 (0) 20 7337 3768
For auction office use only: D2017006
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