Charles Taylor Managing Agency Limited

 Managing Agent Name: Charles Taylor Managing Agency Limited

Subject: Forecast of 2015 open year result

Syndicate(s) Affected: 1884

 

Forecast of 2015 open year result

Charles Taylor Managing Agency Limited (CTMA) currently forecasts (based upon the unaudited figures reported in the Syndicate’s quarterly monitoring return (QMR) at 30 September 2016) that the result for the 2015 year of account (YOA) of the Syndicate, after deduction of illustrative standard personal expenses (comprising Lloyd’s charges, managing agent’s fee, capacity fee and estimated profit commission) but before deduction of members’ agents fees, has deteriorated since the previous forecast was reported in the Syndicate’s QMR at 30 June 2016:

  

2015 YOA

Forecast as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity

Reported at

30 June 2016

Reported at

30 September 2016

Best case expectation

(15.0%)

(29.9%)

Worst case expectation

(35.0%)

(49.9%)

 

This change assumes that the current attritional loss development on the Hull account, which is currently running at greater than 100% loss ratio, will continue to ultimate.  The Hull account makes up just over 50% of the premium for the YOA.  Ultimate gross net premium projection has also been reduced from £33.5m (at 30 June 2016) to £31.9m (at 30 September 2016). There is still uncertainty regarding the ultimate development of the YOA. Earned premium at 30 September 2016 is almost 80% of the ultimate projection.

 Forecast of 2016 open year result

The first forecast of the result for the 2016 YOA is not due until after the first quarter of 2017. CTMA’s current internal forecast for the 2016 YOA result is broadly unchanged since 30 June 2016. The forecast as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity is currently projected to be (4.7%) for the Syndicate (after deduction of illustrative standard personal expenses (comprising Lloyd’s charges, managing agent’s fee, capacity fee and estimated profit commission), but before deduction of members’ agents fees). The primary driver is the reduction in ultimate gross net premium projection to £73.7m (against the business plan forecast of £85.2m) due to challenging market conditions. The Hull account makes up about 30% of the YOA which is significantly less than the proportion in the 2015 YOA. While there is significant uncertainty regarding the ultimate development of the YOA after nine months, claims incurred activity is lower than at the same development period for the 2015 YOA.

  

Date issued: 11 November 2016

 Contact Information

Agency contact name: Julia Davis, Compliance Officer

Agency contact no: + 44 (0)203 320 2247

 For auction office use only: D2016017

DISCLAIMER: Lloyd's is not responsible for the content of any auction disclosures, and acts merely as publisher of information provided by managing agents. If you have any questions regarding the content, you should contact the relevant managing agent.

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