A business-world under cyber attack, the US withdrawing from the world economy and even employee behaviour controlled by implanted micro-chips are all possible scenarios for business in 2018, a new study has revealed.
‘Management Futures’ has been published by the Chartered Management Institute (CMI) and examines what business life will be like in 2018. It also identifies 17 possible scenarios facing insurance organisations in the next ten years. Combined with a survey of over 1,000 senior executives, CMI said the study would be used to help business leaders in the insurance sector understand what needs to be done, today, to prepare for tomorrow.
The study may have suggested that holograms, robots and ‘intelligent’ computers will all have a role to play in the insurance sector’s future business landscape, but for insurance Chief Executives, more realistic concerns are changes to current business models, trade blocs and the UK’s ability to compete on a global scale.
According to the study, trade blocs, within and across markets, will experience more competition and conflict. Around half of the 1,000 survey respondents thought global corporations would exert more influence than governments, and 31% said surveillance of work will increase on all levels.
Data from the survey also suggests that the marketplace will be heavily influenced by new players from Brazil, Russia, India and China by 2018.
Business models will have to change their nature, becoming more open to external influences. Two-thirds of respondents in the sector suggest customer participation in business decisions will increase, while 60% predict that environmental concerns and regulation will create products with longer lifecycles.
Of the 17 possible scenarios facing the insurance sector, the list ranged from terrorists attacking the internet, thus bringing work to a halt, through to a world dominated by digitally controlled employees.
With this in mind, the CMI suggests there should be a focus on ‘intellectual property banks’ to balance requirements for openness with business protection and argues that ‘brain enhancement technology’ must be monitored to avoid misuse.
Although a world of holograms and robots may in reality be longer than a decade away, three quarters of survey respondents do believe that virtual businesses will be commonplace by 2018, while some 81% say the nature of work will lead to increased ‘virtual contact’. This is backed up by the fact that 68% of insurance executives expect that working from home will be a regular occurrence, largely in a bid to reduce the carbon footprint.
The report even goes as far as to predict that ‘humanness’ will a key factor for future organisational success. It suggests that positions and job titles might be removed if they hinder collaboration, although tomorrow’s leaders may disagree!
Mary Chapman, Chief Executive of the CMI, says: “Looking ahead ten years, it is clear that the successful organisations will be those who can do more than embrace change – they will anticipate, identify and drive it. Of course we cannot determine the future, but that does not mean we shouldn’t forecast and prepare for it to ensure that organisations and teams are effective, capable and competitive.”
She adds: “A greater degree of emotional intelligence will be required by managers and leaders so they can understand how people work and their likely reaction to change. They will also need to shift from today’s input-driven approach to a focus on output, achievement and a better integration between work and personal lives.”
