As the terrorist network al-Qaeda continues to evolve, it is becoming more disjointed and increasingly detectable, according to a leading political risk expert.
Simon Sole, Chief Executive of strategic intelligence company Exclusive Analysis, spoke about the terrorist network at the International Underwriting Association seminar in London.
He said: “The network is evolving but it is distracted by Iraq and Afghanistan. It has more of a structured capability in the Middle East but is more disjointed in the West.”
But Sole added that, as the network became more complex, the terrorists aimed to set precedent by their attacks. He said that groups were inspired by other plots, and could learn from their failures.
He also warned of over-coverage by media groups. “The information released regarding current investigations is likely to be advantageous for future terrorists,” he said.
“Information released on the police tactics used to trace the suspects involved - such as mobile phone SIM cards and car registration tracking - is likely to further educate potential terrorists in operational security and how to avoid the intelligence services.”
London underwriters, keen on establishing the extent of the terrorist threat in major cities such as New York and London, were told that modelling such a threat was a complex process.
Exclusive Analysis works alongside Pitney Bowes MapInfo, the leading global provider of location intelligence solutions, to produce a terrorist risk model. Sole said that a collaboration of data and intelligence was used to assess the risk portfolio of different areas.
Citing Manhattan as an example, Sole said: “It is not very helpful to say that all tall buildings in Manhattan are at risk of a terrorist attack. We have chosen 312 buildings which are most likely to be attacked, and assessed the risk to the surrounding buildings.”
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