Investment in the building and maintenance of flood defences in the UK needs to double to £1 billion a year by 2035, according to a new report from the Environment Agency.
The 25 year £20 billion investment programme is needed to protect England because climate change is contributing to an increase in the frequency and severity of flooding from rivers and the sea.
Cost estimates
The Environment Agency estimates that the annual cost of damage to residential and commercial property from flooding, as well as the cost of further disruption, damage to infrastructure and loss of business, could rise from £2.5 billion to £4 billion by 2035 unless funding for defences is increased.
The government agency has calculated that the damage avoided through its investment proposals could save the country £180bn over the next 100 years—but it warns that it may be necessary to look at other sources of funding alongside that of central government.
Key findings
The funding recommendations are based on the latest climate change impact predictions, just released by the government.
The UKCP09 report is the result of a comprehensive set of probabilistic climate projections made at the regional scale and analysed by the UK Met Office.
The key findings from UKCP09 explain how the climate might change.
There is little change in the amount of precipitation (rain, hail, snow etc) that falls annually, but it is likely that more of it will fall in the winter, with drier summers for much of the UK.
Sea levels are rising, more in the south of the UK than the north, adding to the threat.
New figures released by the Environment Agency show that:
- One in six homes in England is currently at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea, or surface water from overflowing drains
- More than five million people currently live and work in 2.4 million properties at risk from rivers or the sea—490,000 of which have a significant chance of flooding. The organisation is warning that this figure would rise to 840,000 by 2035 if future investment is maintained at existing levels
- An additional 2.8 million properties are currently at risk of flooding from surface water. The Environment Agency estimates that an additional £150 million a year by 2035 will be required to help mitigate this risk
- 55% of water treatment works and pumping stations, 14% of electricity infrastructure, 2,358 schools and 2,363 doctors' surgeries in England are situated in flood risk areas, along with some 4,000km of roads and 2,500km of railway.
Investment sources
The long term investment strategy does not assume central government funding alone and the Environment Agency says it wants a public debate to identify other possible sources of funding, “enabling local communities to contribute to reducing flood risk in their locality”.
The Environment Agency’s chairman Lord Chris Smith said, “Our 25-year flood and coastal risk long term investment strategy for England presents some important choices for government, local authorities, developers and others to consider.”
A spokesman for the Association of British Insurers said, “We vitally need a long-term investment programme to manage the rising flood risk—something the ABI has been saying for some while.”
Under the flood agreement it made with government last year insurers committed to providing flood insurance to the majority of customers until 2013.
In return, through the Flood and Water Management Bill, the government promised to tackle flood risk.
Announcement welcomed
The announcement from the Environment Agency was welcomed by Risk Management Solutions, a consultancy, which has just announced the launch of its UK Underwriting Toolkit, designed to help underwriters assess and rate risk for individual buildings impacted by perils such as flood and coastal flooding.
Domenico del Re, director of product management at RMS, said that investment spending should be targeted at improving coastal defences and also at mitigating the increasing risk of inland flooding from surface water.
The Environment Agency does not currently have the mandate to manage the defences from surface and minor river flooding.
“It is proved that sea levels are rising and as a result the worst storm surges are becoming even more serious,” del Re said. “Further, RMS models show that one in 12 homes are vulnerable to flooding from surface water or minor rivers, compared to only one in 450 homes at risk from major river flooding.”
These figures relate to the level of flooding that occurs on average once every 75 years.
Lloyd’s report
According to a recent RMS/Lloyd’s report, with an effective adaptation strategy, future losses for high-risk properties from coastal flooding could be reduced to below present-day levels with losses for high-risk properties reduced by as much as 70%.
