The Thames Barrier is 25 years old today, and the Met Office has marked the occasion by warning that extreme weather conditions will increase in the UK as a result of climate change. Recent weeks have once again seen the country on flood watch, with flood warnings in place in many regions due to torrential rain and fear has gripped Britain that it will see floods of the scale of summer 2007. With the country once again bracing itself, questions are being asked. Will the flooding be worse in 2008, is this an indication of future weather patterns due to climate change and how can we best protect ourselves from future flooding?
The last four years have seen some of the worst flooding in the UK in recent memory, and while logic suggests that global warming could be a factor, Dr Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant on Climate Change at the Met Office feels that the science does not yet prove this: “The trend over the last four years has been a rise in precipitation, but this does not mean there is a direct link to global warming. Although increased rainfall is a climate change signal, more research needs to be done to conclusively prove this.” Predicting rainfall levels, and therefore the likelihood of flooding over the next ten years is very difficult, Huddleston says: “The Met Office has a decade prediction system but can’t predict rainfall accurately at the moment, although we are keen to continue to develop our capacity.”
Despite inconclusive scientific evidence in the short term, experts agree that one of the long-term effects of climate change will be increased local flooding in many parts of the world, as highlighted in the Lloyd’s 360 report Rapid climate change, which suggests that flooding and other extreme weather events will result. Individuals and businesses in exposed areas should prepare themselves for the worst, and the insurance industry is keen to help. Nick Starling, Director of General Insurance and Health at the Association of Business Insurers says: “Insurers are determined to continue to offer flood protection, but to enable them to do so we need to see a step change in how we manage flooding.”
Lloyd’s exposure as a result of the floods has been limited so far, and the insurance industry as a whole is keen to take measures to protect itself and the public from the fallout of flooding. Matthew Swann and Sebastian Rath, climatologists at insurer Hiscox emphasise the need for partnership to tackle these issues now: “In 2008 the insurance industry will continue to work closely with regulatory bodies, scientists, and our policy-holders to minimise future flood losses, and stress the importance of floodplain management as a high priority for government spending."
The Association of British Insurers in collaboration with the Environment Agency has been working to inform the public on mitigating flood risks, but feels that the Government has to do more to help, as Starling highlights: “Last summer’s devastating floods highlighted the urgent need for the long-term government strategy to managing the UK's rising flood risk. At present we suffer from a piecemeal approach with a lack of coordination, insufficient information on the true extent of the flood risk from rivers coasts and drains and continued development of flood-risk areas.”
In the short term, there are a few simple steps that businesses and individuals can take to protect themselves from the full effects of flooding. The first is to take out adequate insurance, which may seem obvious but, as Lloyd’s Emerging Risks Manager Trevor Maynard points out, is a step that can too often be overlooked. “We frequently hear of businesses, particularly small businesses, which do not have suitable insurance against flood damage. This is clearly crucial in terms of protecting the business.” In a recent speech, Lloyd’s Chairman Lord Levene pointed out that more should be done to encourage simple adaptation steps such as improving the resilience and resistance of buildings to flooding: “For example, in Germany, houses at risk of flooding have tiled floors rather than carpet; after a flood they simply hose down and move on.”
Maynard also suggests that businesses should have a comprehensive recovery plan in place, and prepare for the worst case scenario: “We often see damage that exceeds expectations. Hurricane Katrina is a good example. Katrina should not have been powerful enough to break the levees, but the levees were not as strong as models suggested, and the result was the devastation of New Orleans.” The absolute worst must be planned for, as often the effects of a disaster are much more severe than calculated.
For the moment, the UK is breathing a collective sign of relief, but the advice from the professionals is to be prepared: we must take action now to prevent future disasters. There is no substitute for good planning and risk analysis.
