Facts & stats
In addition to sea temperatures, land and air temperatures provide an important measure of climate variation, and have been reliably monitored for many decades.
It is generally agreed that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 2005 the warmest year in a millennium.
The projected rate of increase in global temperatures for the 21st century is likely to be the fastest of any century in the past 10,000 years.
Some of the causes of these trends are natural. However, scientists have now shown beyond reasonable doubt that global warming caused by human activity is also a key factor.
Forest fires are expected to increase in frequency and severity under most predicted scenarios. In some areas, it is estimated that fire frequency and areas affected could double by 2069.
What does it all mean?
Increasing temperatures present significant risks for urban and rural communities across the world. Issues such as subsidence, lower water quality and shortages and overheating in buildings are all likely. With increasing development taking place at the forest/urban fringe, greater economic loss will result from forest fires in the future.
The health of older age groups and the urban poor will be most affected by heatwaves, particularly in Western Europe.
What next?
Higher land and air temperatures raise a number of concerns for insurers.
- Property insurers will want to monitor aggregations of risk in the expanded areas likely to be affected by forest fires, and prepare for the likelihood of increased subsidence events as a result of hotter drier summers in some areas.
- We foresee an increasing possibility of attributing weather-related losses to man-made climate change factors. This opens the possibility of courts assigning liability and compensation for claims of damage.
- In addition, insurers should carefully consider business interruption clauses in their policies, which may be called upon more regularly in future.
- But rising temperatures could also present insurers with potential opportunities. Society will adapt to change and new technologies will be developed.
