Facts & stats
Sea level rise is very difficult to measure and predict. A significant contribution comes from the thermal expansion of sea water, but the world’s continents are also moving – in some cases upwards and some cases downwards.
The consensus is that the global average sea level rose by somewhere between 10cm and 20cm during the 20th century.
However, recent studies suggest that future changes could be greater than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report predicted with the timeframe for icecaps melting reducing from millenia to hundreds of years.
Today, approximately half the world’s population – some three billion people – live within 200 kilometres of the coastline. By 2025, the number is likely to double to six billion if current trends continue unchecked.
These populations will be increasingly at risk from large, sudden changes in sea level in addition to the slow change we might expect from gradual melting.
Up until recently the major West Antarctic Ice Sheet was thought to be stable for many years to come. However, recent research has begun to question this assumption and the likelihood of collapse now needs to be reassessed.
What does it all mean?
Although rising sea levels are often viewed as a long term issue, society could also be impacted in the short-term. Society will experience very significant sea level rises over the coming centuries, threatening huge concentrations of population and economic activity.
Even small rises in sea levels are likely to create severe economic and demographic problems, since large populations are concentrated near present sea level.
Should glaciers decline rapidly, this could also have a significant negative impact because one sixth of the Earth’s population currently rely on glaciers for their water supply.
What next?
The insurance industry will want to consider more closely the increasing concentrations of exposure in coastal areas – even small sea level rises have a dramatic effect in reducing the standard protection offered by coastal defences.
- Insurers will want to regularly review their risk appetite to keep pace with change. They may consider withdrawing or restricting cover in flood-prone hotspots.
- Solutions must be found now to reverse the trend towards further increasing population concentrations in affected areas, especially coastal areas. We believe that a meaningful partnership between government, society and the insurance industry has the best chance of success.
- Lloyd’s welcomes discussion with government and regulators about appropriate catastrophe insurance structures for the future.
