Facts & stats
High sea temperatures are a key ingredient to windstorm formation. The ‘hurricane season’ and ‘typhoon season’ exist because the sea is at the right temperature for a few months each year to allow storms to form.
Overall sea surface temperatures globally have risen between 0.2ºC to 0.6ºC over the past century according to climate models and observations.
Natural rhythms play a significant role, as analysis in the North Atlantic shows. As the last cycle lasted 30 years, we can expect very severe hurricane activity to continue for the short to medium term due to this natural cycle alone.
What does it all mean?
Research appears to show that observed changes in sea surface temperature are partly due to human activity.
Current high Atlantic sea surface temperatures are of particular concern for the North American economy and for the insurance sector, given the resultant exposures.
What next?
The insurance industry must expect and plan for increased windstorm activity.
- Whether attributable to climate change or not, current sea levels and ocean temperatures are higher in the Gulf of Mexico than in the past. Therefore, severe Atlantic hurricanes are likely to continue in the short to medium term.
- As climate change causes temperatures to rise further, insurers should be prepared for increased frequency of extreme storms not just in the Atlantic, but around the world.
- With higher temperatures creating the right conditions for storm formation, we can also expect the hurricane season to lengthen.
- The industry could become more ‘on risk’ over a wider geographical area than previously.
- With more accurate scientific information now available insurers are increasingly able to respond to the scientific predictions of each season ahead.
