Are climate models improving?

Open for entries
Lloyd’s is now accepting entries for its Science of Risk Prize, which aims to stimulate cutting edge research into risk and strengthen links with the academic community.

Researchers have until September to submit their published papers. They just need to write a short summary of their research and enter online for one of the five categories.

“Last year’s entrants were excellent, and we hope to capture more research of a similar quality this year,” says Trevor Maynard of Lloyd’s Exposure Management.

Building on a successful formula
Following the success of last year’s prize, Lloyd’s has extended the entry period and added a new risk category to capture more research.

“We continue to encourage research entries on natural hazards and climate change, but we are also keen to receive entries on biological and behavioural risks as well as our new category, insurance markets and operations Researchers in these areas do not always realise that there work is relevant to insurance,” he says.

Entries need to be innovative and imaginative as well as relevant to insurers, says Maynard. “It is important that the research is relevant and the summary must be easy to understand and interesting.”

Recognising outstanding research
Doug Smith of the UK Met Office won the inaugural Science of Risk Prize in 2010 for his research paper into long range hurricane forecasting. Smith took home the £5,000 prize for Best Overall Research, as well winning the Natural Hazard category.

His research demonstrated for the first time the capability of climate models to predict the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes beyond the seasonal timescale. The judging panel was impressed by Smith’s cutting-edge research and its very strong relevance to insurers.

Bearing fruit
The Lloyd’s Science of Risk Prize has helped raise awareness of demand for scientific research that is focused on the needs of insurers and business, says Smith.  Indeed, the Met Office continues to work with Lloyd’s and is planning to publish a new report on the value of long-range forecasting in the coming months.

Insurers and researchers are co-operating more than ever, says Smith. One product of the growing partnership between the Met Office and insurers is its new climate service, which includes forecasting of extreme weather like hurricanes, tailored to the industry’s needs.

Insurers were among attendees at a recent Royal Meteorological Society meeting arranged by Smith into decadal climate prediction. Trevor Maynard, Deputy Head of Exposure Management at Lloyd’s, presented at the event. “Decadal climate forecasting is an up-and-coming area of research that is proving of increasing interest, and where we see more co-operation between insurers and researchers,” says Smith.

Predicting extreme weather
The forecasting of extreme weather events like the recent flooding in Australia and last Winter’s cold snap in Northern Europe is improving with recent developments in climate modelling, says the inaugural Lloyd’s Science of Risk Prize.

Models are improving all the time, says Smith. For example the UK experienced cold weather and heavy snow in December last year when the normal pattern of European storms was blocked. “We now have a better understanding of issues such as blocking and have developed a model that simulates this much better than in the past.”

The next generation of climate prediction models will further improve forecasting of extreme events by including recent research breakthroughs in blocking, as well as external influences like greenhouse gasses and variations in solar output, and the impacts of El Niño and La Niña.

These climate phenomena are important drivers for extreme events like North Atlantic hurricanes and floods in Australia, says Smith.  For example La Niña contributed to last year’s active hurricane season.

“Last year was an active season but few hurricanes actually made landfall,” says Smith. “We need to focus more on predicting landfall and this could also improve with a higher resolution model.”

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