Snapshot of global terror risk

According to General Myers, retired chairman of the US Joint chiefs of Staff and an AON board member, “There is no question in my mind that violent extremists would be willing to use those weapons of mass destruction if they could get their hands on them.”

Al Qaeda is a “ruthless adversary with a global view”. While its operational flexibility has been constrained in recent years, with the terrorist network losing many of its key people, Myers believes the intent is unchanged.

Myers was speaking at the launch of AON’s Terrorism Threat Map. The map, produced in collaboration with security consultant Janusian, colour codes countries according to their perceived threat level.

Home-grown terror

Concern also remains about the internal threat in North America and Europe, with home-grown terrorists travelling abroad to places like Pakistan for training and then returning to their countries to plan attacks. The re-emergence of more traditional terrorist factions, such as Irish dissident groups in the UK (which currently carries a “high threat” level), is another notable dynamic.

According to the map, the US remains classified as having an “elevated” threat level. “The United States as a symbol for the West will always remain a target,” says Myers. “We saw the bombing attempt of the airliner going into Detroit and most recently an attempt here in New York City in Times Square of the truck bomb that did not go off.”

The suspect in the attempted Times Square bombing in May fits the profile of a home-grown terrorist. Pakistan-born US citizen Faisal Shahzad travelled to Pakistan for training a year ago before carrying out the attempted bomb plot, which involved leaving an SUV loaded with explosives parked in Times Square. He is charged with attempted use of weapons of mass destruction and attempted acts of terrorism.

New breeding ground

Countries with established insurgencies such as Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Somalia and Yemen are coded “severe threat”. Myers believes continued uncertainty of the results of the 2010 Iraq election could lead to an increase in violence in the region.

Thailand, which has recently seen violent clashes between anti-government protestors and troops, leaving 89 dead, currently carries a high threat level. “They’ve gone through some pretty bloody days,” says Myers. “They already have a global Islamist threat in the south and the question is where will the protest go from here that we’ve seen in Bangkok recently? Will that become more of an insurgency that will continue to interrupt activities in Thailand?”

As the war on terror continues to put pressure on extremist Islamic groups in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, there could be a migration of Al Qaeda leadership to new territories, such as northern and eastern Africa and Yemen. Myers singled out Somalia as being a country that is particularly favourable for extremists to regroup in. “It’s a place we thought the Al Qaeda leadership might migrate to. It’s basically ungoverned space so if you set up camp so to speak, pay off people, it’s a place where you can operate with some freedom.”

While Afghanistan is an ongoing concern as the Taliban has re-emerged as a strong insurgent force, the international community is committed to “making sure Afghanistan is eventually successful”.

In Pakistan, where “the government’s enthusiasm for going after violent extremists seems to have highs and lows”, there is also concern over potential weapons proliferation.

Abdul Qadeer Khan, Pakistan’s disgraced nuclear scientist who admitted to leaking nuclear secrets, was released last year after being held under house arrest for five years. “We must remember that Pakistan was home to AQ Khan who proliferated nuclear technology including the technology to enrich uranium to make his weapons grade,” said Myers.

But he directed his attention to Iran and North Korea as the countries currently posing the biggest proliferation risk. While Iran has enough enriched uranium “for a couple of weapons”, North Korea’s capabilities are much greater, warned Myers. “They pose all sorts of threats locally in the region but the bigger threat is they have nuclear, chemical and perhaps biological capability and they are cash poor. The question is would they sell any of this capability to violent extremists who might have the resources to buy it?”