Forecasters flash alert for active hurricane season

That year insurers and reinsurers had to ride out the triple whammy of hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, which collectively left them with a bill for well over $60 billion.

Washington-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week that it is expecting “an active to extremely active” season for the Atlantic Basin in 2010.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, NOAA is projecting a 70% probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• eight to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• three to seven could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

 

NOAA’s 2010 outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

In London, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which is co-sponsored by Lloyd’s broker Aon Benfield, anticipates Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricane activity being 55% above the long-term (1950-2009) norm. TSR correctly anticipated the active 2004, 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons as well as the quiet 2009 season.

For 2010 TSR maintains its earlier forecasts for an active hurricane season with an outlook that includes:

• A 77% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season; an 18% probability of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season;
• 16 tropical storms including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of 10, six and three respectively.

 

For US landfalling activity, TSR forecasts:

• A 74% probability of above-normal US landfalling hurricane activity; a 19% likelihood of a near-normal season, and only a 7% chance of a below-normal season;
• Five tropical storm strikes on the US, including two hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of three and 1.5 respectively.

Professor Mark Saunders at TSR, said: “Every main climate indicator points to the 2010 hurricane season being active. If La Niña develops during the second half of 2010 the above-norm hurricane levels will be even higher.”

 

Three main climate factors will determine the level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Occurring in August and September, these are the speed of trade winds over the tropical North Atlantic, sea temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic, and the sign and strength of El Niño Southern Oscillation.

US landfalling hurricane activity is influenced by the level of hurricane activity occurring at sea, the pre-season North Atlantic Oscillation, and by July tropospheric wind patterns over the North Atlantic and US.

Highly respected hurricane watchers Philip J Klotzbach and William M Grey at Colorado State University also forecast above average activity for this year in their April 7 extended range forecast, saying “we anticipate an above average probability of US and Caribbean major hurricane landfall”.

Klotzbach and Grey called for four major hurricanes and put the probability for at least one major hurricane landfall along the entire East coast at 69%, or 45% for the East coast including the Florida peninsula (compared to 52% and 31% respectively for the last century).

The forecasters’ predictions are worrying for insurers and reinsurers who have already been hit with unusually severe natural catastrophe losses in the first quarter of this year: especially from the earthquake in Chile (as much as $10 billion) and windstorm Xynthia in Europe (as much as $2 billion).

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