Tackling global food insecurity

The Agriculture Outlook 2010-19 says that wheat and coarse grain prices could jump to levels of between 15 and 40%higher than they were between 1997 and 2006, while vegetable oil and dairy prices are also projected to rise by more than 40%. In addition, the report envisages rising global demand for meat as many people in emerging economies alter their dietary habits due to increased wealth.

The report, jointly published with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), says that theoretically food production can meet the demand generated by surging population growth by 2050. But even if enough food is produced to feed the world’s people, price spikes and the economic crisis are resulting in heightened food insecurity, with as many as one billion people now believed to be undernourished.

Pricing pressures

Prof. David R. Harvey of the School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development at Newcastle University believes that the worrying price increases forecast by the UN report are realistic. “If the world economy recovers quickly and returns to previous growth rates -with consequent pressure on oil prices as well as on food demand - and if there is a continued slowdown in farm productivity growth and structural change, (for example further climate instability and/or deterioration), then these price increases seem entirely plausible,” he says.

Some experts believe that factors such as climate change, water scarcity and a possible spike in oil prices could further increase the inflationary pressures on food prices and further exacerbate food insecurity. “Assumptions about the oil price look fairly optimistic compared to some projections that the world is set for an oil supply crunch as soon as the global economy starts to recover,” says Alex Evans, non-resident fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University. “That will feed into higher food prices as land is taken for biofuels at the same time as the cost of inputs and also transportation rises.”

Moving in the right direction

The report calls for enhanced agricultural production and productivity as well as a well-functioning, rules-based trading system to spur fair competition and ensure that food can move from surplus to deficit areas. Prof. Harvey agrees that a continued increase in agricultural R&D funding is essential and he is cautiously optimistic about the future. “Either the World Summit on Food last year or coincident events have led to some increase in agricultural R&D worldwide, which is encouraging. Otherwise, the rhetoric appears to be in the right direction, though with little real action to date” he says.

Prof. Harvey and Alex Evans agree with the UN report conclusions about the need for a rules-based trading system. “That’s what we didn’t have at the last food price spike,” Evans says. “Instead we had over 30 countries imposing export restrictions on crops amid a generalized state of panic. That led to a systemic loss of confidence in trading countries to ensure a continuity of supply, putting hundreds of millions of people at risk of starvation.”

Agricultural revolution

Both agree that World Trade Organisation rules are not designed to cope with sharp food price increases and should be revised to address sudden export restrictions and protectionism. But Alex Evans, author of the Chatham House report The Feeding of the Nine Billion – Global Food Security for the 21st Century, believes that more radical action is called for to produce 50% more food by 2030 – the target set by the World Bank. Agriculture has to be resilient in the face of extreme weather events, water scarcity and volatile input prices, he says.

“We need a complete revolution in agricultural sustainability, the way it consumes water and energy and its impact on climate change,” he says. “But most important of all it needs to be equitable. Even if you produce enough food to feed everybody, who gets to buy that food and who gets to access it? “Yes, we need to produce more food and yes, we need to make the trade system more resilient. But we also need a 21st century green revolution that works for poor people, increasing their incomes and their security.”