Is the terrorism risk level rising?

The UK Government warned last week that a terrorist attack using chemical, biological or nuclear weapons was becoming ‘more realistic’ as it published a revised counter-terrorism strategy.  So does this mean that the level of risk for business is now rising?

Lloyd’s report ‘Global Business Under Attack’, published in June 2007 in co-operation with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), highlighted that terrorists are keen to cause destruction in new and creative ways, and this includes the use of chemical, biological, nuclear and radioactive (CBNR) bombs.

That terrorists operating in the UK have such aspirations is evident from various plots uncovered by the authorities.

When the suspects in Operation Crevice were arrested in 2004, among the many plots which emerged was one involving the attempted purchase of a dirty bomb, while another investigation uncovered efforts to extract radioactive material from 10,000 fire alarms in order to make a dirty bomb.

Unrealised but not discounted

Until now, these ambitions have remained unrealised. However, as Lloyd’s 360 reports have suggested, business should not completely discount them. Research undertaken by Lloyd’s and the EIU two years ago showed that business leaders are increasingly aware of the risks and this is helping to drive best practice in the area.

Around a quarter of senior global executives agreed that CBNR risk posed a significant threat to the business community, and around the same proportion of organisations had started to develop and test their business continuity plans with these risks in mind.

According to the UK Home Office, the spreading of expertise via the internet and a surge in theft and smuggling of radioactive material since the collapse of the Soviet Union are two factors behind the changing level risk.

At the same time, the Home Office confirmed that 20 Britons monitored by the Pakistan intelligence authorities had returned to Britain.

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies also points to the increasing concerns of some scientists about the risks posed by advances in genetic engineering.

Noxious pathogens have recently been synthesised in laboratories and this type of activity can be difficult to detect, he says. 

Protecting business

Lloyd’s 360 reports have emphasised that successfully protecting business from these risks is largely a question of reinforcing current security practices, but it is important that organisations are fully aware of the risks.

Whether the business community would be a particular target for a dirty bomb is uncertain, but the risk of getting caught up in the fallout of an attack remains a real threat for every organisation.

Analysis of previous plots suggests a number of common themes which put the business under higher levels of threat than some other sectors of society, such as the desire to inflict mass casualties and target transport systems (which point to an urban location) and the vulnerability of iconic buildings (and organisations linked to Western capitalism).

Care not panic

Prudence, not alarmism, therefore suggests that boards should closely consider the risks associated with CBNR attacks, especially where we know that the technology exists and it is possible to source the materials needed, as is the case with dirty bombs.

The first and perhaps most important step is for companies to ensure that their business continuity plans are regularly updated with the latest counter-terrorism information and knowledge, and then tested to ensure that they are able to respond to extreme events of this nature.

“A CBRN attack is a classic example of the kind of low probability, high impact event that organisations find difficult to anticipate and plan for,” Nigel Inkster says.  “But a good general security culture combined with an educated understanding of the nature of the threat can help companies take sensible and cost-effective measures to minimise the risks to their staff and their operations.”

-- Darragh Gray, 360